In a glimpse
This project was an attempt to model, emulate and study the behavior of a country’s economy and socio-political groups. It combines elements of Economics (micro and macro economics), Psychology, Sociology and Politics.
Of course, the project’s initial focus was on programming. I don’t claim to be John Maynard Keynes nor Adam Smith, but in the process of developing this project, the more I got involved, all the more I studied fields other than my domain -Computer Science- in order to attempt to make it more realistic.
In any case the end results turned out to be quite interesting…
As a program, it is a system developed in Java containing Fuzzy Logic rules for many of its components and other elements of Computational Intelligence.
The entire project is a product of my own thought
The trigger of this study…
“The hawk and dove game”
(John Maynard Smith: “Evolution and Theory of Games”, 1982)
- A game of two populations: Hawks vs. Doves
- Hawks eat doves
- Turns out that the two populations must either cooperate or perish
Could we make a correlation with the political system?
Honest vs. Corrupt?
A few assumptions for our components:
- Honest politicians attempt to improve the economy, while corrupt politicians try to satisfy a portion of the population, in order to get reelected
- Citizens with a high ability to judge can distinguish honest from corrupt politicians and always vote for honest
- Citizens with an average ability to judge have a high probability to distinguish honest from corrupt. These citizens consiously vote for either honest or corrupt, depending on economic conditions
- Citizens with a low ability to judge can not distinguish honest from corrupt and always vote for corrupt politicians
- Each year, politicians help shape the economic conditions by:
- Taxing citizens
- Issuing bonds
- Investing (consuming)
- Based on the above actions, the following economic magnitudes are formed:
- “Per Capita Income” (PCI)
- Economic Growth Coefficient
- Investment Return
Sample factors involved and programmed in the system:
By conducting an experiment with 50% corrupt and 50% honest politicians and letting the system run for 50 years we get the following curves:
- As soon as the system converges a steady economic increase is observed
- The PCI is in general slightly below untaxed income
- Citizens tend to elect corrupt politicians when economic conditions improve and vice versa
Here is what we get with the population of politicians held steady at 20% honest and 80% corrupt throughout the course of 50 years:
And here is the opposite, a population of politicians held steady at 80% honest and 20% corrupt throughout the course of 50 years:
- 20-80% honest-corrupt: An economic increase is present, but the PCI remains below the untaxed income
- 80-20% honest-corrupt : There is an obvious growth of the economy, with a PCI maintained above untaxed income
- In both cases we have economic progress, but in the first case it is slower and reaches lower levels
- Also, in the second case, citizens enjoy a PCI greater than their income.
This is due to investment return, which is a trait/result of the majority of the politicians being honest.
- Citizens have the tendency to elect corrupt politicians, depending on economic conditions
- This leads to a slow -yet steady- progress which is not optimal
- The domination of honest politicians results to a strong economy
- In any case, there is progress, both economic (PCI) and educational (PCE), which conforms to reality
- “Φυλακισμένοι με διλήμματα και κυρίαρχες στρατηγικές:
Η θεωρία των παιγνίων” – Jordi Deulofeu
- “Economics” – Paul A. Samuelson
- “Understanding Microeconomics” – Robert L. Heilbroner, Lester C. Thurow
- “Understanding Macroeconomics” – Robert L. Heilbroner, Lester C. Thurow
For more details feel free to download the presentation of this project: